An Estimate of the Probability for Attaining the Necessary Parameters for Life Support
| Parameter | Probability that feature will fall in the required range |
|---|---|
| galaxy size | .1 |
| galaxy type | .1 |
| galaxy location | .1 |
| star location relative to galactic center | .2 |
| star distance from closest spiral arm | .1 |
| z-axis extremes of star's orbit | .1 |
| proximity of solar nebula to a supernova eruption | .01 |
| timing of solar nebula formation relative to supernova eruption | .01 |
| number of stars in system | .2 |
| star birth date | .2 |
| star age | .4 |
| star metallicity | .05 |
| star orbital eccentricity | .1 |
| star's distance from galactic plane | .1 |
| star mass | .001 |
| star luminosity relative to speciation | .0001 |
| star color | .4 |
| 3H+ production | .1 |
| supernovae rates and locations | .01 |
| white dwarf binary types, rates, and locations | .01 |
| planetary distance from star | .001 |
| inclination of planetary orbit | .5 |
| planetary axis tilt | .3 |
| rate of change of axial tilt | .01 |
| planetary rotation period | .1 |
| rate of change in planetary rotation period | .05 |
| planetary orbit eccentricity | .3 |
| surface gravity (escape velocity) | .001 |
| tidal force | .1 |
| magnetic field | .01 |
| albedo | .1 |
| density | .1 |
| planetary crust thickness | .01 |
| oceans-to-continents ratio | .2 |
| rate of change in oceans-to-continents ratio | .1 |
| global distribution of continents | .3 |
| frequency and extent of ice ages | .1 |
| asteroid and comet collision rate | .1 |
| change in asteroid and comet collision rates | .1 |
| mass of body colliding with primordial Earth | .002 |
| timing of collision with primordial Earth | .05 |
| rate of change in asteroid/comet collision rate | .1 |
| proximity and mass of Jupiter | .01 |
| major planet eccentricities | .1 |
| major planet orbital instabilities | .1 |
| drift rate and rate change of major planets | .1 |
| atmospheric transparency | .01 |
| atmospheric pressure | .1 |
| atmospheric electric discharge rate | .1 |
| atmospheric temperature gradient | .01 |
| carbon dioxide level in atmosphere | .01 |
| oxygen level in atmosphere | .01 |
| chlorine level in atmosphere | .1 |
| iron quantity in oceans | .1 |
| tropospheric ozone quantity | .01 |
| stratospheric ozone quantity | .01 |
| mesospheric ozone quantity | .01 |
| water vapor level in atmosphere | .01 |
| oxygen-to-nitrogen ratio in atmosphere | .1 |
| quantity of greenhouse gases in atmosphere | .01 |
| frequency and extent of forest and grass fires | .01 |
| soil mineralization | .1 |
| quantity of sea-salt aerosols | .1 |
| quantity of decomposer bacteria in soil | .01 |
| quantity of mycorrhizal fungi in soil | .01 |
| quantity of nitrifying microbes in soil | .01 |
| quantity of sulfur in soil | .1 |
| quantity of sulfur in planet's core | .1 |
| tectonic activity | .1 |
| volcanic activity | .1 |
| decline in volcanic activity | .1 |
| viscosity of Earth's core at core boundaries | .01 |
| biomass to comet-infall ratio | .01 |
| regularity of cometary infall | .1 |
| dependency factors (estimate) | 100,000,000,000 |
| longevity requirements (estimate) | .00001 |
Probability for combined occurrence of all 75 parameters = 10-99
Maximum possible number of planets in universe = 1023
Taken from Ross, H. 1998. Big Bang Refined by Fire. Reasons To Believe, Pasadena, CA.
By putting together probabilities for each of these design features occurring by chance, we can calculate the probability of the existence of a planet like Earth. This probability is 1 chance in 1099. Since there are estimated to be a maximum of only 1023 planets in the universe (10 planets/star, see note below), by chance there shouldn't be any planets capable of supporting life in the universe. Our existence suggests divine intervention and design. The design and care with which the laws of physics, the universe, our galaxy, our solar system, and the planet Earth were crafted suggests that God is caring and loving. He put in a lot of time in the design and creation of the universe so that we would have a nice place to live for such a short period of time.
Back to The Incredible Design of the Earth
Note: This is most likely a huge over estimate. In a recent survey of globular cluster 47 Tucanae, scientists found zero extrasolar planets out of 37,000 stars searched (Astronomers Ponder Lack of Planets in Globular Cluster from the Hubble Space Telescope).
References 
Cited literature for the estimates presented here can be found on the main design page, The Incredible Design of the Earth.
Today's New Reason to Believe
Integrating Science and Faith
- 02/09/2012 12:23 PM
TNRTB Classic: Rodents Are a Good Thing
It goes against human nature to feel gratitude for mice and rats—nevertheless, there are a lot of reasons to be thankful for rodents. This Monday I discussed the benefits mankind and the environment have received from beavers. For more reasons to thank God for rodents, check out this previous article on breakthrough research conducted on … Read more
() - 02/06/2012 09:17 AM
Thank God for Beaver Dams
A recent study helped reveal the importance of beaver dams. Yet as a native of Canada, I have always been thankful for these furry rodents and their dams. (The beaver is the national animal of Canada and is depicted on the Canadian nickel.) For two centuries the fur trade supported Canada’s economy—and almost all that … Read more
() - 02/02/2012 09:55 AM
TNRTB Classic: Thinking About Cloning
A few days ago I proposed a theological framework to help Christians think about synthetic biology and the creation of life in the lab. It is also important that believers know how to think about advances in other areas of biotechnology. One controversial area of particular concern is cloning. Below is a link to a … Read more
() - 01/30/2012 12:49 AM
A Theology for Synthetic Biology, Part 2 (of 2)
With the creation of artificial life in the lab on the horizon, many people—Christians in particular—are asking if synthetic biology is a safe and ethical discipline. Most importantly, they ask, “Are scientists playing God?” It has become apparent to me that the best way to address these questions is by establishing a theology for synthetic … Read more
() - 01/26/2012 12:15 PM
TNRTB Classic: Cell Blueprints
A few days ago I asserted that the creation of artificial life in the laboratory demonstrates that the genesis of life requires the work of intelligent agency. Success in synthetic biology, whether from the bottom-up or top-down, requires the work of highly trained scientists who rely on several hundred years of scientific knowledge. In the … Read more
() - 01/23/2012 12:41 AM
A Theology for Synthetic Biology, Part 1 (of 2)
It’s just a matter of time before synthetic biologists create artificial life in the lab. This endeavor causes many Christians concern and raises a number of important philosophical and theological questions. It has become apparent to me that there is a need for a theology for synthetic biology. Part 1 of this series provides an … Read more
() - 01/19/2012 12:08 PM
TNRTB Classic: Big Bang Cosmology
On Monday I discussed a recent discovery that boosts confidence in the big bang theory. Numerous tests of increasingly detailed aspects continue to affirm the model and, thus, give scientists a good reason for assurance in the validity of big bang cosmology. This previous TNRTB discusses confidence-boosting discoveries from the past 20 years and shows … Read more
() - 01/16/2012 12:38 AM
Gas Clouds Found Sans Metals
Four minutes after the big bang, hydrogen and helium constituted the only elements in the universe (except for minute amounts of lithium). No heavier elements—which astronomers refer to as “metals”—existed until the first stars formed a few hundred million years later. The initially fruitless search for gas clouds that reflect this lack of metals cast … Read more
() - 01/12/2012 09:07 AM
Podcast Highlight: Busy as a Beaver
If you were asked to name an animal that has greatly impacted the economic growth of the North American nations, would beavers come to mind? If not, they definitely should. Thanks to ground-penetrating radar readings from satellites, scientists have discovered that beaver dams—once abundant throughout North America—were instrumental in the subterranean sediment buildups that comprise this continent. In … Read more
() - 01/09/2012 09:33 AM
Podcast Highlight: The Elephant in the Room
Does the elephant’s sixth “toe”represent an example of common descent or common design? Recent extensive research, using modern technologies, weighs in on a centuries-long debate over the origin and purpose of the elephant’s sixth toe. Fossil records indicate that the toe first appeared in elephant anatomy 40 million years ago when elephantine species began to … Read more
()
http://www.godandscience.org//apologetics/probabilitieslife.html
Last updated March 31, 2008
Top of Page 
Back